Notice July 23, 2025 Doc #2025-13929

Continuation of the National Emergency With Respect to Significant Transnational Criminal Organizations

Public Safety Foreign Policy Economy Defense

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In Simple Terms

The President has decided to keep a national emergency in place for one more year. This is because big criminal groups still pose a threat to the U.S.

Summary

On July 21, 2025, President Donald Trump issued a notice to continue the national emergency regarding significant transnational criminal organizations for an additional year. This action extends the emergency first declared in Executive Order 13581 on July 24, 2011, and reinforced by Executive Order 13863 on March 15, 2019. The continuation is deemed necessary due to the ongoing threat these organizations pose to U.S. national security, foreign policy, and the economy, as they engage in sophisticated criminal activities that endanger public safety and international systems. The notice will be published in the Federal Register and sent to Congress.

Official Record

Federal Register Published

Signed by the President

July 21, 2025

Published in Federal Register

View on Federal Register View Printed Version (PDF)

July 23, 2025

Document #2025-13929

Analysis & Impact

💡 How This May Affect You

The continuation of the national emergency concerning significant transnational criminal organizations has several potential impacts on different groups of Americans. This policy primarily focuses on combating international crime networks, which can have broad implications across various facets of life in the United States.

Working Families and Individuals

For working families and individuals, the continuation of this national emergency might not directly affect their daily routines but could have indirect benefits. By targeting criminal organizations, the government aims to reduce illegal activities such as drug trafficking, money laundering, and human trafficking. This could lead to safer communities, potentially reducing crime rates in neighborhoods and improving overall public safety. For example, decreased drug trafficking might result in fewer drug-related incidents in communities, which could lead to a safer environment for families.

Small Business Owners

Small business owners might experience both direct and indirect effects. On one hand, efforts to curb money laundering and other financial crimes could create a more level playing field by ensuring that businesses compete fairly without the influence of illicit funds. On the other hand, increased regulations and scrutiny to combat these organizations might mean more compliance requirements for businesses, particularly those in sectors vulnerable to money laundering, such as real estate and financial services. This could mean additional paperwork or reporting requirements, which might increase operational costs.

Students and Recent Graduates

For students and recent graduates, the immediate impact might be minimal. However, a reduction in crime and increased public safety can create a more stable environment for education and early career development. Additionally, if the policy successfully curtails the flow of illegal drugs, it could lead to healthier campus environments and communities. Moreover, graduates entering fields related to law enforcement, cybersecurity, or international relations might find increased job opportunities due to heightened efforts to combat these organizations.

Retirees and Seniors

Retirees and seniors might benefit from enhanced community safety if the policy effectively reduces crime. This demographic often prioritizes safety and security, so a decrease in criminal activity can improve their quality of life. Additionally, measures to protect financial systems from criminal exploitation can safeguard seniors' savings and investments from potential fraud or scams linked to transnational crime.

Different Geographic Regions

Urban Areas: Urban regions, which may be more directly affected by the activities of transnational criminal organizations, could see a more significant impact. Efforts to combat these organizations might lead to reduced crime rates, making cities safer and potentially more attractive for living and business investments.
Suburban Areas: Suburban areas might experience indirect benefits as spillover crime from urban centers decreases. Enhanced safety and reduced drug trafficking can contribute to a higher quality of life in these communities.
Rural Areas: Rural areas might see less direct impact, but efforts to combat drug trafficking can be significant if these areas are used as transit points or production sites for illegal activities. Improved enforcement could lead to fewer drug-related issues, which can be a concern in some rural communities.

Overall, the continuation of the national emergency aims to disrupt the operations of transnational criminal organizations, potentially leading to safer communities and a more secure economic environment. While the direct impact on daily life might be subtle, the broader implications could contribute to enhanced public safety and economic stability across the country.

🏢 Key Stakeholders

Primary Beneficiaries:

Law Enforcement Agencies: These agencies, including the FBI, DEA, and Homeland Security, benefit from continued authorization and resources to combat transnational criminal organizations. The continuation of the national emergency allows them to maintain and enhance their operations, ensuring they can address sophisticated criminal threats effectively.
National Security Organizations: Entities like the Department of Defense and the National Security Agency gain from sustained focus and funding to address threats posed by criminal organizations that can undermine national security. This action underscores the importance of their intelligence and operational roles in safeguarding the country.

Those Facing Challenges:

Transnational Criminal Organizations: These groups face increased scrutiny and pressure as the national emergency status empowers U.S. agencies to intensify efforts against them. This includes financial sanctions, asset freezes, and enhanced international cooperation to dismantle their networks.
Industries with Potential Collateral Impact: Sectors like international banking and finance might experience increased regulatory scrutiny and compliance burdens as they work to prevent financial systems from being exploited by criminal organizations. This could lead to higher operational costs and stricter reporting requirements.

Industries, Sectors, or Professions Most Impacted:

Financial Services Sector: Banks and financial institutions are directly impacted as they must enhance their anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorism financing (CTF) measures to comply with the continued national emergency directives. This ensures they are not inadvertently facilitating illegal activities.
Technology and Telecommunications: These sectors may face increased demands for cooperation with law enforcement to monitor and disrupt criminal communications and transactions. This could involve providing data access or developing technologies to detect illicit activities.

Government Agencies or Departments Involved in Implementation:

Department of Justice (DOJ): The DOJ plays a central role in prosecuting and dismantling criminal organizations. The continuation of the national emergency supports its mandate to pursue legal actions and international cooperation against such entities.
Department of the Treasury: Through its Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the Treasury Department enforces economic sanctions against criminal organizations, making it a key player in implementing financial measures under the national emergency.

Interest Groups, Advocacy Organizations, or Lobbies with Strong Positions:

Human Rights Organizations: These groups may express concerns about potential overreach or civil liberties infringements in the pursuit of criminal organizations. They advocate for balanced approaches that protect human rights while addressing security threats.
Business and Trade Associations: Organizations representing industries like finance and tech may lobby for clear guidelines and support to ensure compliance without stifling innovation or competitiveness. They seek to balance security measures with business interests.

📈 What to Expect

Short-term (3-12 months):

Immediate Implementation Steps:
The continuation of the national emergency will involve coordination between various federal agencies, including the Department of Justice, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Treasury Department, to sustain and potentially enhance existing measures against transnational criminal organizations (TCOs). These measures may include sanctions, asset freezes, and enhanced law enforcement operations.
Early Visible Changes or Effects:
In the short term, there may be an increase in high-profile law enforcement actions, such as arrests and asset seizures, as agencies leverage the powers granted under the national emergency to disrupt TCO operations. The continuation of the emergency could also lead to heightened scrutiny of financial transactions to identify and block illicit flows of money.
Potential Initial Reactions or Challenges:
There could be pushback from civil liberties groups concerned about the broad powers exercised under the national emergency, particularly if there are perceived overreaches affecting innocent parties. Additionally, international partners might express concerns about the extraterritorial application of U.S. sanctions and enforcement actions, necessitating diplomatic engagement to manage these relationships.

Long-term (1-4 years):

Broader Systemic Changes:
Over time, the sustained focus on TCOs could lead to more sophisticated and integrated strategies for combating organized crime, potentially including enhanced international cooperation and information sharing. This might foster the development of new technologies and methodologies for tracking and dismantling criminal networks.
Cumulative Effects on Society, Economy, or Policy Landscape:
The continued pressure on TCOs could weaken their financial bases and operational capabilities, leading to a reduction in their influence and activities. This might result in decreased levels of certain types of crime, such as drug trafficking and human trafficking, benefiting public safety and security. However, TCOs may adapt by diversifying their activities or relocating operations, necessitating ongoing vigilance and adaptation by law enforcement.
Potential for Modification, Expansion, or Reversal by Future Administrations:
Future administrations might choose to modify the approach based on the effectiveness of current strategies and evolving threats. If the measures prove successful, there could be calls to expand the scope of the national emergency to address emerging criminal threats. Conversely, if the emergency is seen as ineffective or overly burdensome, it might be scaled back or allowed to lapse. Political considerations and changing national security priorities will likely influence these decisions.

Overall, while the continuation of the national emergency underscores the ongoing threat posed by TCOs, its long-term success will depend on the ability of U.S. agencies to adapt to evolving criminal tactics and maintain robust international partnerships. Stakeholders should watch for changes in crime rates, shifts in TCO activities, and the administration's engagement with domestic and international partners as indicators of the policy's trajectory.

📚 Historical Context

The continuation of the national emergency with respect to significant transnational criminal organizations, as outlined in the notice from July 21, 2025, is part of a long-standing tradition of using executive powers to address threats that transcend national borders and impact the United States' national security, foreign policy, and economy. This action is a reaffirmation of the executive branch's commitment to combatting organized crime that operates on a global scale.

Historical Precedents:

Origin with Executive Order 13581 (2011): The original declaration of a national emergency on July 24, 2011, by President Barack Obama, was a response to the escalating threat posed by international criminal syndicates. This executive order was a recognition that such organizations were not only involved in traditional criminal activities like drug trafficking but were also engaging in more sophisticated operations that could destabilize international economic systems and threaten U.S. security.
Expansion with Executive Order 13863 (2019): President Donald Trump expanded upon this framework in 2019, acknowledging the increased sophistication and evolving nature of transnational criminal activities. His administration's focus was on the broader implications of these organizations' actions, including their potential to undermine political systems and engage in human rights abuses.

Building Upon, Modifying, or Reversing Policies:

Continuation and Expansion: The 2025 notice continues the trajectory set by previous administrations, emphasizing the persistent and evolving threat of transnational criminal organizations. It builds upon earlier policies by maintaining the focus on these groups' ability to adapt and expand their operations, thereby necessitating ongoing vigilance and action from the U.S. government.
Legal and Economic Measures: The executive orders and their continuations have typically involved leveraging the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which allows the President to regulate international commerce in response to unusual and extraordinary threats. This legal framework has been instrumental in targeting the financial networks of these organizations.

Relevant Historical Patterns:

Use of National Emergency Declarations: Historically, presidents have used national emergency declarations to address a range of threats, from terrorism to pandemics. These declarations allow for the mobilization of resources and the implementation of measures that might otherwise be constrained by peacetime regulations.
Focus on Global Crime Networks: The U.S. has long recognized the threat posed by global crime networks, dating back to actions against the Mafia and drug cartels in the late 20th century. The current focus on transnational organizations is a continuation of efforts to address crime that crosses borders and impacts multiple nations.

Unique or Noteworthy Aspects:

Persistent Threat: What makes this action particularly noteworthy is the acknowledgment of the persistent and evolving nature of the threat. Unlike some emergencies that are resolved over time, the fight against transnational criminal organizations requires sustained effort and adaptation to new tactics.
Comprehensive Approach: The continuation of this national emergency reflects a comprehensive approach that involves not only law enforcement but also economic and diplomatic measures. It underscores the interconnectedness of security, economic stability, and international relations in the modern era.

In summary, the continuation of the national emergency regarding transnational criminal organizations is a testament to the ongoing challenge these entities pose. It fits within a broader historical pattern of using executive powers to safeguard national interests against complex global threats, highlighting the necessity of persistent and adaptable strategies in American governance.